FONTANIE | Magazine
Going beyond the ordinary in business, work and life
Issue: February, 2018
Growing Your Business
Business In Regina, Saskatchewan
Sask’s GDP could decline by 11.4% with elimination of NAFTA
Report by Praxis Consulting.
With NAFTA renegotiations underway, Praxis conducted an economic impact scenario analysis to consider the following: What if Saskatchewan’s exports to the United States returned to pre-Free Trade Agreement levels and structure? Praxis then extended this analysis to derive the impact of this scenario on the Regina census metropolitan area (CMA). This scenario analysis, represented in 2014 constant dollars, produced the following results:
Provincial Impact Highlights
• Total Saskatchewan merchandise exports to U.S. could decrease by $9.8 billion.
• Provincial GDP could decline by as much as 11.4%.
• Employment could drop by almost 6.4% or approximately 36,570 jobs.
Regina CMA Impact Highlights
• Total Regina CMA merchandise exports to U.S. could decrease by $1.5 billion.
• GDP could decline by approximately 6.7%.
• Employment could decrease by 2.5% (representing a loss of almost 3,500 jobs)
• Industries most impacted: agriculture, resource extraction, manufacturing, finance, transportation, and warehousing.
While returning to a pre-FTA U.S. trade pattern represents an extreme case in a renegotiation of NAFTA, the results of the analysis demonstrate the importance of international trade to the Saskatchewan and Regina CMA economies, particularly with the U.S. Businesses engaged in exporting must continue to diversify into other export markets. Although the future of trade with the U.S. contains many unknowns, over-reliance on this single export market is not necessarily a sound strategy.
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